We're late getting TWiA posted this week, mostly because sometimes life--and technology--interferes with everything else. We'll try to keep to the regular schedule next week.
This Week in Iraq
Over last weekend, presidential candidates were still wrestling with the correct answer to the question of whether, in hindsight, invading Iraq was the right thing to do. The answer most have settled on seems to be, "Maybe not, but the world is better off with Saddam Hussein gone, and the Bush administration only invaded because the intelligence he saw was wrong."
Anybody giving any version of that response should be eliminated from contention for the presidency immediately, because that displays either a willful ignorance of history, or an intentional lie about it.
There are two parts to the answer, so let's take them one at a time. Is the world better off without Saddam? He was a vicious tyrant who didn't mind killing Iraqis (albeit mostly Kurdish ones) when it suited him. He looted his own country for his personal benefit. We're pretty sure no one would call him a role model or a nice guy. But let's start locally and work outward when addressing the above question. Is Iraq better off now?
Saddam was a tyrant, but he had achieved a kind of stasis that kept Iraq whole despite the longstanding schism between Sunnis, Shias, and Kurds. The invasion tore apart that stability, aggravating those old differences, to the point that the country is now effectively three countries (or four), with sometimes overlapping geographical boundaries.
Estimates of Iraqi dead as a result of the invasion and the sectarian violence it unleashed vary, but the number is at least 100,000, and maybe closer to 200,000. Who do we suppose the families and friends of those dead blame? Saddam? Of course not. They blame the US, because it was our invasion that enabled the carnage.
The problems with war planning, and especially postwar planning, are well known by this point. We went into Iraq with too few troops--a shortcoming recognized by many outside the administration but apparently very few inside. Without a serious plan for how to restructure Iraq post-Saddam, we let Ambassador Paul Bremer make too many decisions, sometimes with administration consultation and sometimes not. The result of that was de-Baathification, which caused the country's security system, its courts, virtually its entire government, to collapse. Everybody who really ran things was suddenly not to be trusted. Being stripped of their jobs radicalized many. Military officers were sent packing with their dignity shredded but their weapons intact, and when they were radicalized, they had military experience, leadership experience, guns, and hatred of the US and of Shiite Iraqis. Civilians were swept up in huge numbers and sent to places like Abu Ghraib, where, even if they were later released as innocent, they were radicalized.
We went into a semi-cohesive country and we tore it apart from the inside out, but we didn't know what to replace that structure with. Should we have been surprised that the people we had given reason to hate and fear us banded together against us? That Sunnis summarily ejected from their lives and livelihoods were likely to take it out on Shiites? That Shiites would respond in kind? Of course not--many predicted sectarian strife before the invasion (Colin Powell's Pottery Barn analogy comes to mind), but the war's architects within the administration wouldn't hear of it.
Before we invaded, al-Qaeda had no presence inside Iraq. Saddam was a secular ruler, his government a secular one. Osama bin Laden and his hardcore faithful were trying to rid the Middle East of secular governments, to replace them with strictly Muslim ones. By demolishing the strongest secular government in the Middle East, we did bin Laden's work for him, even while weakening our own efforts in Afghanistan by dividing our focus and our resources. In the vacuum that followed the invasion and de-Baathification, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) started out as a jihadist group formed by Abu Musad al-Zarwaqi in 1999 (after our first invasion of Iraq--the one that radicalized bin Laden and led to--among other atrocities--the 9/11 attacks on America). In 2004, in the postwar chaos, that group declared allegiance to al-Qaeda, and AQI was born. In 2006, AQI merged with other groups to form the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), headed by Abu Abdullah al-Rashid al-Baghdadi and Abu Ayyub al-Masri.
Today, the Republican presidential candidates like to say that ISIS came about because President Obama withdrew US troops from Iraq. Jeb Bush said this week that ISIS didn't exist during his brother's administration. Yet, they've been in existence since 2006, long before Obama even started running for the presidency, making that yet another deliberate misrepresentation.
Which is not to say that the current administration hasn't made mistakes in its Middle East policy. It inherited a chaotic situation in which there were no good choices, only bad ones and slightly less bad ones, and little way to tell them apart. Getting involved in the Libyan uprising might have been a mistake. Not getting involved early in the Syrian uprising might have been a mistake. There are no good answers, and no good paths for moving forward. It might be useful to remember that the nation we think of as Iraq is a European construct from 1920, only becoming independent of British rule in 1932; the Sunnis, Shias, and Kurds sharing that construct don't all feel as driven to hold it together as we do. Prime Minister Maliki, the Bush administration-installed figurehead, exacerbated the problem by favoring his Shiites while pushing Sunnis even further from power. There are still Iraqi Sunnis willing to fight for their country--even against the Sunni ISIS--but if Maliki had been a better leader, Iraq would be in better shape to defend itself.
Before George W. Bush and Dick Cheney--the two human beings most directly responsible for the invasion and the regional chaos that followed--left office, they were unable to secure a Status of Forces Agreement with Maliki. Without that agreement, the sovereign Iraqi government could, and did, tell us to get out. The Bush administration created a timetable for doing so. After entering office, Obama tried again to get a Status of Forces Agreement, and again was rebuffed, so he kept to Bush's existing timetable. To blame him for the new surge of violence that came about after American withdrawal is to ignore at least 2/3 of the truth.
The war did more than destabilize Iraq, it did the same for the entire Middle East. Iraq and Iran had been checks on one another's regional power. With Iraq suddenly gone, Iran became the big kid on the block--more powerful than even Saudi Arabia, our supposed ally. The Arab Spring swept through the region, in most cases replacing secular governments with religious ones.
And of course, the spectacle of supposedly Christian America invading a Muslim country--and all that followed from that--created ever more terrorists.
In 2013, in that destabilized Middle East, with Syria's Assad busy fighting insurgents in his own country, ISI expanded across the border into Syria. Now that it held turf in two countries, it changed its name to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). That's how they're known today, and with increasing power, with military weapons and tanks captured from ill-prepared Iraqi soldiers (much of the hardware US-supplied), the Islamic State has grown and grown. Despite a US-led coalition involving ground troops (mostly not ours) and air support (mostly ours), IS has made headway in some areas while losing ground in others. They've become the face of jihadism, supplanting al-Qaeda as our greatest enemy. But to forget that they long preceded the Obama administration is to ignore an important, fundamental truth.
The other piece of the current argument--the intelligence was flawed--is also long since discredited. We knew Iraq had no nuclear capability whatsoever. We knew they had deployed chemical weapons in the past (sometimes with US assistance), but those weapons--even if they did still exist--were no threat to us. Iraq had been struggling under strict economic sanctions for years. It had no money for weapons programs, Saddam didn't trust his own military, and before our invasion, not only were there weapons inspectors in the country confirming the lack of WMDs (inspectors the Bush administration told to leave because we were getting ready to attack), but Saddam's government had handed over a full accounting of what weapons it had originally had, and how they'd been disposed of. Bush and Cheney chose to ignore the inspectors and Saddam's accounting, which turned out to be far more accurate than the picture our leaders painted.
President Bush told us during a State of the Union speech that Iraq was buying yellowcake uranium for its nuclear program. That was a myth that had already been proven wrong by Joe Wilson, sent to Africa by the administration to investigate. Bush knew the allegation was false, but he repeated it anyway, and when Wilson complained that his work had been ignored, the administration's response was to out Wilson's wife, Valerie Plame Wilson, an undercover CIA agent working on WMD issues, in an attempt to discredit her husband. When Dick Cheney told us that aluminum tubes were for Saddam's reconstituted nuclear program, he had already been told by every expert in and out of the administration that they couldn't be used for that purpose. When Condoleeza Rice, Cheney, and Bush all warned about Saddam's capability to strike in America with nuclear weapons, they knew there was no such capability. When Cheney insisted that 9/11 hijacker Mohammed Atta had met with Iraqi intelligence officials in Prague in April 2001, he already knew that wasn't true. When attempts were made to link Iraq and 9/11 in various ways, those links were known to be false.
American intelligence has often been wrong (Bay of Pigs, anyone?), and in some respects it was here. But what we know now shows us that most of the specific bits of "intelligence" used to sell the war to Congress and to the American people were either manipulated, or were outright lies. Bush and the neocons he'd surrounded himself with--Cheney foremost among them--wanted to invade Iraq, to finish what the first President Bush had left unfinished. Four days after 9/11, they were already working toward it. To get their war, they were willing to do almost anything. They got the war they wanted, and it was an unmitigated disaster that has made the world considerably less safe. They transformed America from the moral example it had been into a nation that attacks others without provocation or cause, a nation that condones torture, a nation that ignores the Constitutional protections it offers mass murderers in the case of people who might or might not have taken up arms against us in defense of their own country.
The damage that war did to America is still unfolding today, and will be for years to come. And Republican presidential candidates are pretending they don't know that.
Monday, May 25 is Memorial Day. We don't honor our fallen by forgetting why they fought, or by rewriting history to protect the reputations of those who sent them into harm's way. We honor then by acknowledging that they went where they were told and did their duty, trusting that the nation would make the right decisions and that its civilian leaders would not choose war if there were other options. That's not what happened here. Let's not allow the truth of history to be whitewashed out of existence.
"Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it," George Santayana famously said. Now that we have Republicans in Congress trying to scuttle a nuclear deal with Iran and pressing for military action there, and arguing in favor of sending troops back into Iraq and into Syria, we especially need to hold the truth close, so we have the moral and historical arguments against such action on our side. And we need to know that whoever is elected to the White House next will appreciate the real history of our last war, rather than the made-up version.
This Week in Incarceration
In similar manner, Republicans who wanted to be seen as "tough on crime" in the 1990s are now blaming President Clinton, not themselves, for the mass incarceration we see today. Three strikes laws, mandatory sentencing, etc., mostly came about at the state level, and were ideas mostly championed by conservatives. Now they want to distance themselves from responsibility, the same way Republicans are trying to dodge the truth about Iraq.
This Week in Publicity Stunts
Presidential candidate Sen. Rand Paul (R/KY) took to the Senate floor this week to launch another phony filibuster. At the same time, his campaign sent out fundraising email blasts and tweets implying that Paul was standing up for freedom, when in fact he was standing up to get his name in the papers and expand the family mailing list, which has already been a steady source of income for Ron Paul.
A real filibuster blocks action on a real bill. Paul's stunt interrupted Senate debate on the pending trade bill, but had no impact on the Patriot Act reauthorization he claimed to be opposing. It might have had a slight procedural impact if he had kept it up until after midnight; instead, he ended the stunt shortly before midnight, guaranteeing that it would not affect the reauthorization in the slightest.
There are many reasons to oppose a straight reauthorization of the Patriot Act, a bill passed by a frightened nation after 9/11. It does infringe on our civil liberties. The NSA's bulk collection of data is not particularly harmful--they're scooping up data based on algorithms and looking for patterns, not listening in on our phone calls--but it's a disturbing specter of government overreach. We're glad Paul and other senators raised the same objections that the majority of Democrats in both houses of Congress have already raised (along with enough House Republicans to pass the USA Freedom Act, which puts much stricter controls on NSA data mining), since Senate Republicans appear ready to pass the reauthorization without much genuine consideration.
But Paul's hours-long diatribe accomplished nothing. The Washington Post describes the scene: "The chamber was nearly empty, save for a few staffers seated in the back and a security guard standing near the door. Five Senate pages sat on the steps of the dais, looking directly at Paul. One young woman twirled the end of her hair. A young man picked at his cuticles."
We should keep our labels straight. A filibuster is a filibuster, but a publicity stunt is a publicity stunt, and should not be mistaken for anything like statesmanship.
This Week in Big Government
Is big government necessarily bad, as the conservatives like to tell us? Not if you like broad prosperity. It's no coincidence that the world's richest countries tend to be big-government countries.
This Week in Inequality
The bottom 40% of Americans, in terms of wealth, have a negative net worth. The top 10% possess 76% of all the wealth in the country. Here's an easy explanation of wealth inequality, with charts.
This Week in Bad "News"
A new paper reports on multiple studies that show that Fox "News" has managed to push the country to the right, not just in terms of supporting conservative policies but in actual voting behavior.
That's bad news, because plenty of other studies show that people who rely on Fox as their main news source are more misinformed than people who don't. Fox pretends to be a journalistic effort, but--as these studies clearly demonstrate--it's really a propaganda effort designed to push that particular ideological agenda. Also clearly, that agenda--from long-discredited "trickle-down" economics theories to climate change denial to warmongering to voter disenfranchisement to bigotry against gays, Muslims, immigrants, and more--is bad for America. Fox is accomplishing its propaganda goals, but they're pushing the country toward a cliff.
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When watching Fox is literally dangerous to others...
This Week in Arizona
How do you make up a huge budget shortfall when you refuse to raise taxes? In TWiA's home state of Arizona, legislators have come up with an answer: punish the poor even more than you already are. After all, it's their fault they're poor. After all, as State Sen, Kelli Ward (R) says, "As a society, we are encouraging people at times to make poor decisions and then we reward them."
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Also in Arizona, America's Most Corrupt SheriffTM continues to make headlines, though not always in the ways he'd like. Press investigation finds that he's cost the taxpayers between $44 and 51 million just to deal with his decision to ignore a federal judge's ruling that his department stop its rampant racial profiling. AMCSTM's racism is expensive, and getting more so. Now, because he has to pay some legal fees on his own (on top of what he's raked from the taxpayers), he's begging his supporters for personal contributions to his defense. (His pleas don't seem to mention the legal costs incurred by people he's targeted for various political reasons.)
And those millions are, of course, on top of the millions he's already cost his constituents for other offenses, like the $3.5 million recently paid out to one victim among the 400 cases of sexual abuse against children AMCSTM decided weren't important enough to investigate, because after all, some of those children had brown skin, and going after other brown-skinned "troublemakers" was a higher priority. (Under AMCSTM, the percentage of Hispanic and black men in Maricopa County jails has shot up dramatically--well above the demographic makeup of the county)--while the percentage of jailed white men has gone down.)
In the latest demonstration of his astonishing cynicism, he's demanding that the judge overseeing the current case recuse himself, because AMCSTM's office tried to find dirt on that judge. He's done the same before, with judges and other political enemies, but this time is particularly egregious--AMCSTM sent people to investigate that judge, and now he wants that judge to step down because he's in charge of a case involving someone the plaintiff had investigated.
There are those in Maricopa County see this pathetic thug as some kind of hero. Those people are called suckers, and AMCSTM has taken advantage of them for far too long. Any human with a conscience would resign and beg the forgiveness of the people who elected him. In his case, that forgiveness has not been earned and would not be deserved.
This Week in Kansas
Speaking of punishing the poor, Kansas has dreamed up the most sinister method yet.